If there’s one thing we preach consistently, it’s that companies should always work toward creating diverse, strong supply chains.
But that’s a lot easier said than done, sometimes.
Building a reliable supply chain can take years, and a single moment can damage or destroy it. Companies spend incredible amounts of time constantly tweaking and reviewing partnerships. That often means constantly researching and vetting partners, testing and implementing methods, poring over shipping routes, and more.
The goal for any business is to develop an adaptable, durable, and diverse supply chain from sourcing to delivery.
To achieve that goal, companies invest in continuous improvement, which involves making small tweaks to improve overall performance. But for every improvement we make, there is always a risk of a hiccup shortly after implementation.
These short-term performance dips are called J-curves, and they usually occur shortly after making changes. They’re a completely normal part of the improvement process and happen for many reasons, including:
Though J-curves are initially concerning, they generally lead to more productivity, better results, and higher profits.
Managing J-curves as part of an ongoing continuing improvement process is like performing a series of scientific experiments.
It might seem odd at first, but it helps to understand the scientific method and how it applies to business. The scientific method has six key steps: observe, question, hypothesize, experiment, draw conclusions, and report results.
When done correctly and consistently, the templated process helps scientists recreate results, find answers, and discover new things. Over time, we can spot issues and opportunities, make changes to test and grow our knowledge, and adjust based on those results.
But how does the scientific method apply to business and the supply chain?
Supply chains also develop and improve through constant testing and measured, consistent improvements over time. Known as Plan-Do-Check-Act (PDCA), this process places focus squarely on constant improvement and experimentation. When we combine PDCA actions with strong risk management, the system gives us safety valves to default to if something goes wrong.
Using PDCA as our version of the scientific method, we can build processes that make reducing J-curves easier. But like a good experiment, mitigating J-curves is about planning and processes. When those two align, businesses can make better guesses and avoid unexpected factors.
Supply chains are constantly changing and evolving, and companies shouldn’t be afraid of innovating when they have the opportunity.
But pulling levers without a plan is a recipe for disaster. Like any business process, a little planning and diligent execution make decisions much less risky. That’s why it’s worth taking the time to develop process templates and make small, measured improvements.
So, what can businesses do to improve their supply chain while reducing implementation J-curves?
Benjamin Franklin once quipped, “By failing to prepare, you are preparing to fail.”
Whether it’s finding a new shipping partner, upgrading systems, or improving a product, do your research and make plans. Stock up on the right materials, back up files, dig into company histories, and get as much data as possible.
“Success in new ventures isn’t about avoiding risk—it’s about preparing for it with backup plans,” KrisTech’s Supply Chain Director, Marcus Tagliaferri, said. “Building flexibility into your approach—have a Plan B, C, and D ready so you can pivot quickly if the situation goes sideways.”
But beyond doing your due diligence, it helps to know what the company wants to achieve with every improvement. Knowing what the end goal is allows teams to align resources, labor, and technology to execute correctly. If everyone isn’t on the same page, it can lead to costly oversights or blind spots that squash productivity.
“A clear strategy is the bridge between vision and execution,” Tagliaferri explained. “Without it, goals remain out of reach.”
Creating a system of operations or standard operating procedure (SOP) can reduce confusion and align cross-functional teams. These documents codify each step of the plan and create repeatable templates that anyone throughout the company can use.
Essentially, an SOP acts as the company’s North Star for any new initiative.
One key to the scientific method is that you never change more than one variable at a time.
Making a mess of changes all at once is a recipe for failure because it’s harder to pinpoint issues if something goes wrong. When we opt to make a single change at a time, we have ample time to test it, approve it, and then apply it to other teams or products.
Phased changes keep all eyes on a single variable, allowing teams to track changes and adjust. Yes, it’s slower at first, but as companies refine their SOPs, they become easier to implement and track. Phased implementation is also more methodical, giving teams more control to improve efficiency.
Lastly, if something goes wrong during a phased rollout, it’s much easier to revert to the previous solution.
Nothing disheartens me more than spending months planning and meeting, only to realize people feel lost.
When possible, train teams thoroughly before making changes and give them an idea of what to expect.
“The more voices you include in shaping the plan, the stronger the commitment to achieve it,” Tagliaferri said. “Make sure to answer questions, get buy-in from key stakeholders, and connect the project to key performance indicators (KPIs).”
Stakeholder management often goes deeper than simply getting signatures on a change order. In nearly every case, continuous improvement requires constant communication, clear objectives, and trust.
Stakeholders aren’t just the executives holding onto the wallet, either. Good teams include internal stakeholders tied to the project’s success, and external partners for whom the change could affect. At every point in the project, teams should engage with stakeholders to get their temperature and assess any concerns they have.
Additionally, try to keep impacted groups informed throughout the task. Use a RACI system to make sure the right information gets into the right hands at the right time.
Finally, don’t deprioritize training, especially when ramping up a new product, process, or partner. Training is a critical part of project management, and when done well, can give companies a crucial competitive advantage.
Conversely, launching new initiatives or products without proper training could lead to lower customer satisfaction and lower performance.
At first glance, keeping two systems running that do the same thing seems like a waste of money. Though running redundant systems can be expensive, there are several good reasons why you’d keep them both going temporarily.
The key takeaway here is not to toss the baby out with the bathwater the second you sign a contract. Rather, we need to give new partners, suppliers, shippers, and systems time to acclimate to the environment.
Lastly, if something goes wrong, it’s easier to revert to the previous system than try to slog ahead with the new system alone.
If you’re not monitoring new changes and tracking results as they come in, you’re leaving everything up to fate.
Every change we implement will have a J-curve, but how deep the drop goes and how long it lasts are somewhat controllable. Monitoring inputs and outputs helps us adjust on the fly, find solutions to issues, and refine what works. In the worst-case scenario, data can help us pull the plug on certain changes and minimize losses.
New processes and partners take time to develop. This is why it’s worth starting with one variable in one team and then expanding over time.
“Being patient with data isn’t hesitation; it’s leadership. Let the data breathe before deciding what it’s saying,” Tagliaferri explained. “Good decisions are built on complete, consistent trends over time. When you let data fully develop, you move from reacting to signals to making decisions grounded in facts.”
Moving fast and applying wholesale changes across the board can be alluring, but sometimes data takes time to tell its story. Initial results can give us false positives or negatives, and jumpy teams could react too early. Giving each variable breathing room helps team members make better decisions backed by data.
No supply chain manager ever hopes they need to use their Plan B, but it never hurts to prepare.
The most important thing to keep in mind is what the goal was that prompted the change. If the data coming back post-change doesn’t support the KPIs the team laid out, it could require a rollback.
Controlled rollbacks help us quickly test out and kill minor changes to the system that don’t show signs of success. These rollbacks often occur early on in implementation when only a few people are impacted, and can happen for many reasons. For example, a new process could lead to manufacturing issues, leading to widespread impacts across several teams. In this case, we’d pull the change and go back to our previously successful process instead.
Leaving everything up to chance after issuing a new change could damage areas far outside your initial scope. Remember, supply chains are delicate, and even small hiccups can cause huge headaches. Bad intel can prolong J-curves, resulting in either longer recovery times or a spiraling decline in productivity.
As the saying goes, “you can’t make an omelet without breaking a few eggs.”
Consistent improvement often means navigating through hiccups, misfires, and false starts. But it’s how we handle those situations when they arise that generally determines how successful the implementation is.
No matter how small the improvement is, always communicate what you’re doing with others in the supply chain. They should know what’s happening and how it may impact them so they can also make changes internally.
Whether it’s adding a new partner, mode of transport, or production process, always communicate updates with your network. Effective communication helps them adjust their own workflows and supply chain operations to keep everything running smoothly. Keeping them out of the loop, though, can make a tough situation worse, compounding issues or stunting positive momentum.
Global supply chains are sensitive, living creatures, and even slight changes can have oversized impacts. Despite its fragility, consistent improvement is the key to ongoing growth in a competitive world.
Just remember to iterate in small doses, monitor KPIs, communicate effectively with others, and know your limits.